The Expand Democracy 5: Improving presidential primaries, independent expenditures in NYC, global presidential elections, the political gender divide, and timely links
Welcome to the latest edition of The Expand Democracy 5. With Eveline Dowling’s assistance, we lift up timely links and stories about democracy locally, nationally, and on a global scale. Today's stories include:
🗳️Deep dive: Making presidential primaries better for parties and voters
💰Independent expenditures in the NYC mayoral race
🌍International presidential election norms: popular votes by majority
➗Gen Z’s Gender Divide is Reshaping Global Democracy
🕓This week’s timely links
#1. Making presidential primaries better for parties and voters
[20 Democrats at a 2019 presidential primary debate. Source: New York Times.]
This past week brought news that the Democratic Party might not adhere to the recent changes it made to the presidential primary schedule, while Minnesota Governor and 2024 vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz suggested that Democrats should be less rigid regarding which states get to vote early. Heading into 2024, Democrats had followed Joe Biden’s lead to make South Carolina the first approved primary, removing Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional first–in-the-nation status. It is no coincidence that Biden finished 4th in Iowa with 14.9% and 5th in New Hampshire with 8.4% in 2020, while South Carolina gave him a game-changing win. What complicated the changes in 2024 was that the Republicans didn’t go along (keeping Iowa first and New Hampshire second), and Democratic challengers Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson competed in the unsanctioned Democratic primary in New Hampshire, resulting in Biden easily fending them off with an organized write-in campaign.
Presidential primary scheduling and rules, which significantly influence who wins and how many voters matter, are more fluid and changeable than other national voting laws. Looking to 2028 and beyond invites a discussion about how best to vote and to schedule primaries to improve the odds of the parties identifying a consensus nominee and having as many of their voters as possible be part of the decision. At FairVote, I helped organize a Fix the Primaries project from 2007-2010 that featured a range of ideas and proposals, such as the “rotating regional primary” endorsed at one point by the National Association of Secretaries of State and Thomas Gangale’s American Plan for graduated primaries generally tied to population, and highlighted Don Means’ National Caucus for Reform that worked with both parties on the presidential calendar.
Some of my most widely syndicated commentaries on democracy have focused on improving presidential primaries, such as this piece in 2024 and another one in 2020. I also collaborated with colleagues on the 2021 academic article "Lessons from the Use of Ranked Choice Voting in American Presidential Primaries," which establishes the case for RCV in the historical convention process where party delegates voted repeatedly until identifying a consensus nominee. As also proposed by former Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, my favorite policy (as outlined in this longer piece in 2016) would involve a rotating set of early states holding contests that define the field, followed by a break of a month or two, and then a national primary conducted with ranked choice voting for a binding decision on the nominee. That context might be in May, with many states holding their congressional primaries that day to boost turnout. Congress could incentivize such a “national primary day” by offering to pay most of the costs of states willing to hold their primary on the designated day.
Don’t expect such significant changes in 2028, but it’s high time for the parties to get creative—the stakes couldn’t be higher, as there’s a huge impact on party-building, voting rights, and nominee quality based on whether a party adopts a smart, more inclusive primary calendar and whether it replaces single-choice ballots with ranked choice voting that counts more votes and provides advantages consensus. In the short term, parties may seek to enhance coordination with each other regarding the calendar and contemplate a longer interval between the early primaries and “Super Tuesday”-type mega-state contests. Parties running their own contests can follow the lead of Republicans in the Virgin Islands in 2024 and Democrats in four states in 2020 that used ranked choice voting.
#2. The Influence of Independent Expenditures in NYC's 2025 Mayoral Race
[Source: Bridgewater State University]
New York City’s mayoral race has intensified heading into the likely decisive Democratic primary on June 24, with an Emerson College poll showing former governor Andrew Cuomo’s lead over progressive state legislator Zohran Mandani in the final instant runoff down to nine percentage points and the first of two debates this week further shaking up the contest. New York City has our nation’s most robust public financing system, but as our largest and wealthiest city, it is also again experiencing a large amount of independent expenditures (IEs).
The New York Times on June 1st profiled Fix the City, which has raised nearly $11 million to support Cuomo: “Fix the City is already the single largest outside spending force in New York City’s political history, surpassing a record set in 2021. It has spent multiples more on ads than any campaign in the race, blanketing New Yorkers’ screens in paeans to the former governor. The next biggest candidate super PAC, set up to back [Mamdani], who is second in recent polls, has 1/50th of the funds.” Just yesterday, Politico reported that Housing for All, a super PAC representing landlords’ plans to spend an additional $2.5 million to boost Cuomo.
New York’s use of RCV is important. On one hand, it engages more voters, so having funds to reach them is beneficial. On the other hand, the fact that the backup choices of trailing candidates can be decisive makes it electorally risky to alienate voters with overly aggressive attacks. Winners in competitive RCV races usually are ranked in the top three by more than 75% of voters, underscoring that relationship-building and positive campaigns are important. Given that IEs thrive on negative attack ads, having more money is not enough to win.
Indeed, in the 2021 primary, The City reported in July 2021 that “The five men among the top eight Democratic candidates outpaced the women in garnering the support of super PACs — a.k.a. independent expenditure groups — by a margin of more than 13-to-1, an analysis by The City found. And they beat the women by about 6-to-1 in private fundraising.” Yet Maya Wiley and Kathryn Garcia ended up being second and third in first choices, and Garcia was the overwhelming preference of voters as a backup choice, reducing frontrunner Eric Adams’ lead from nearly 105,000 votes to some 7,000 votes in the final instant runoff.
That’s a pattern I’ve observed in a series of competitive major elections with RCV. As a candidate, I’d prefer to have more money than not, but it’s not enough in itself. Candidates perform best when they and their campaign team get out to meet voters, speak at local events, earn endorsements, and build relationships. Recognizing his significant lead before spending any money, we’ll soon see how Cuomo’s substantial IE spending advantage translates into impact.
Addendum: Ranked choice voting is a key factor in New York City, both for mayor and in down-ballot primaries. City and State provides examples, with Reinvent Albany’s John Kaehny commenting, “Complaints about confusion - we just have not seen it.” Notable examples include:
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez released her RCV recommendations for five mayoral candidates, starting with Mamdani.
Active mayoral candidate Jessica Ramos has endorsed Cuomo.
Mamdani supported candidate Adrienne Adams in qualifying for public financing and highlighted his fellow candidate's recommendations.
Former President Bill Clinton lifted up the value of RCV in New York City
#3. Presidential Election Norms Worldwide: Insights from South Korea, Poland, and Romania
[The “Swing States of America” in 2024. Source: Interknowlogy]
In a snap election, South Korea on June 3rd elected liberal major candidate Lee Jae-myung as its new president, following the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol, an anti-feminist leader who had declared martial law. Lee secured 49% of the vote, defeating conservative rival Kim Moon-soo, who garnered 41%. Voter turnout was notably high at 78%.
Meanwhile, in a closely contested June 1st runoff election, conservative Karol Nawrocki secured the Polish presidency with 50.9% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who had led by 31.4% to 29.5% in the first round. Backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and endorsed by Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, Nawrocki can veto legislation, which is likely to continue to stall Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda aimed at restoring judicial independence and strengthening EU ties.
In another consequential presidential runoff on May 18, Romania elected Nicușor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, as its new president. Dan secured 53.6% of the vote, defeating far-right nationalist George Simion. Following a tumultuous period marked by the annulment of an earlier vote due to alleged Russian interference, Dan's victory was propelled by strong support from urban voters, women, and ethnic minorities. The election witnessed a voter turnout of 65%, and, as in Poland, flipped the script from the first round when Simion led by a whopping 41% to 21%.
These elections showcase an overwhelming global trend; when it comes to directly electing heads of state, democracies overwhelmingly have rejected U.S.-style Electoral Colleges in favor of popular vote systems where every voter casts an equally impactful vote no matter where they live. Furthermore, most nations make more votes count through majority voting systems – typically a runoff election if no candidate secures at least 50% in the first round, but in the case of Ireland (which has its next presidential election this fall) and Sri Lanka relying on ranked choice voting ballots that allow a “one and done” means to uphold majority rule. As democratic resilience is tested around the world, these elections highlight a key lesson: legitimacy and stability are stronger when leaders are elected with clear, majority-backed mandates, which the U.S. system spectacularly fails to ensure.
Resources:
FairVote 2006 report on Majority Rule in International Presidential Elections and archived map of how elections look across the globe
National Popular Vote’s Every Vote Equal (2024 edition), a book I coauthored with lead writer John Koza on reforming American presidential elections
#4. Gen Z’s Gender Divide is Reshaping Global Democracy
A widening gender gap among Gen Z voters is greatly influencing democratic elections globally. Young men are increasingly gravitating towards right-wing ideologies, often expressing concerns about issues like mandatory military service and perceived job discrimination. Conversely, young women tend to support left-leaning positions, focusing on progressive causes and gender equality. This divergence is evident in countries such as South Korea, France, the UK, Germany, Canada, and the US, where differing economic realities and aspirations between Gen Z men and women are influencing political landscapes.
Experts warn that this politicization of gender differences, if unaddressed, could hinder consensus on major social issues like taxation and welfare. Addressing economic insecurity and fostering dialogue between young men and women is critical to restoring democratic unity. As this generation becomes an increasingly influential voting bloc, understanding and addressing the factors driving this gender-based political divergence will be essential for the health and unity of democracies worldwide.
Thanks to Eveline Dowling for this important item.
#5. Timely Links
“Cultural Decline in the U.S. Is a Threat to Democracy”: Jonathan Sumption in the New York Times. An excerpt: “Hence the significance of President Trump, who exhibits the three classic symptoms of totalitarianism: a charismatic leader surrounded by a personal cult, the identification of the state with himself and a refusal to accept the legitimacy of opposition or dissent. The result is a regime of discretionary government in place of the government of laws that the founders saw as the chief defense against tyranny.”
Elon Musk suggests a new party after slamming Trump's budget bill and tariff policies. From The Hill: “Billionaire Elon Musk seemed to suggest support of a third political party as he escalated a growing fight with President Trump that boiled over Thursday. ‘Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle,’ Musk wrote in a post on social platform X to his more than 200 million followers on the site, which he owns. Musk attached a survey to his post that allowed users to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the idea of a third political party.”
Karine Jean‑Pierre Leaves Democratic Party: Former White House Press Secretary Karine Jean‑Pierre has officially left the Democratic Party to register as an Independent, ahead of her forthcoming memoir, Independent: A Look Inside a Broken White House, Outside the Party Lines. In it, she critiques internal party dynamics and urges Americans to break free from rigid partisanship that is sparking both applause and backlash from former colleagues.
Juneau Assembly Considers Ranked-Choice Voting for 2026 Elections: Assembly members in Alaska’s capital city of Juneau unanimously have approved drafting an ordinance to introduce RCV, with the proposal set for introduction at the Assembly's June 9 meeting. While the change won't affect the upcoming municipal election in 2025, officials are preparing for a public review process. Notably, Juneau voters have shown substantial support for RCV in votes on RCV and all-candidate primaries statewide.
Nevada Legislature Sends Governor Legislation for Semi-Open Primaries and Other Voting Changes: Nevada's 2025 legislative session concluded with largely bipartisan agreement on voting changes. The Democratic-controlled Legislature and Republican Governor Joe Lombardo reached a compromise that introduces a voter photo ID requirement, a long-standing conservative goal, while simultaneously expanding access to mail ballot drop boxes, aligning with Democratic priorities. Another bill would open Nevada’s primaries to unaffiliated voters who now represent more than a third of registered voters in the state.
Stephen Richer Wins Defender Prize: This week, the Leadership Now Project honored former Maricopa County (AZ) election clerk Stephen Richer with its Democracy Defender Prize. In accepting his award, Richer emphasized that courage can be defined as doing your job in the face of pressures - in his case, defending the legitimacy of county elections amid intense political pressure and misinformation.
Poll Workers: The Face of Elections: A new report from the Center for Civic Design includes insights such as: “Poll workers humanize the polling place by building community around them.
Poll workers reflect the local community and the polling place. They reflect the surrounding community at the polling place.
Polling places are rooted in their local communities. They have strong connections to the neighborhood’s culture and context.
Poll workers create a culture of community at the polling place. They humanize and personalize the election process, creating a positive and supportive culture for voters in the polling place.”